The Global Economy: Russia


Now I would like to talk more about the situation in Russia.

After the first sanctions, the economy inside the country began to stabilize, prices stopped rising, and the ruble began to fall. As for industries and companies that have left Russia, there can be no doubt that this will either be compensated by their own production or with the help of the EAEU and SCO, or through gray schemes and the return of many companies back over time. The conclusion is based purely on logic and pragmatism, there is too big a niche in the market, which any company would be happy to take as soon as the situation becomes calmer, this applies to all areas of production, mining and sales.

Many people are of course surprised by the situation with the ruble, which is already at the marks of the beginning of 2020, although if you start to go deeper into the question, the surprise will go away at once.

The ruble is actually held by the CBRF with an iron grip, prohibiting its sale in amounts greater than $10-15 thousand and taking them out of the country. Since the interest in the ruble has significantly decreased on international exchanges due to sanctions, without such a tough CBRF policy with the ruble and its artificial fixation at the values acceptable to the government, the ruble would have collapsed much more and it is not known how long it would have recovered, so this policy of artificial retention is quite justified from the point of view of Russia.

On the other hand Russia has never been so independent from the dollar and its dedollarization of assets is in full swing with the replacement of dollars for gold and yuan, which incidentally set a historical record in terms of trading turnover on the Moscow Exchange. In trading on April 11, the volume of currency transactions reached ₽25.18 billion, the highest level since the yuan began trading on the Moscow Exchange.

On top of everything else, Russia is beginning to put strict limits on the sale of its energy resources for the ruble to increase ruble turnover in the global economy; if it succeeds, then the economic effect of the sanctions will be largely negated.

At the moment, at current prices, Europe is paying +- 500 million euros per day for Russian energy resources, which equals +-15 billion per month.

According to Western economists, inflation in Russia will reach 10-15% this year, wiping out the economic growth of the last 15 years.

Also, because of political reasons there is an outflow of personnel in the country, especially in IT sphere, about 70-100 thousand, in general there is a lot of information about it and it varies from 500 thousand to 2 million people.

Keep your nose in the wind Friends and may fortune always be with you ;)

Always yours, C.J.

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